Modelling the agricultural sector of Tajikistan

The Tajik agricultural sector plays a major role for the country’s economy. Consequently, the further development and improvement of the sector has been identified as a priority by Tajik policy-makers. The German International Cooperation Agency (GIZ) is engaged in Tajikistan via the program “Towards Rural Inclusive Growth and Economic Resilience” (TRIGGER), aiming to support decision making that strengthens the country’s rural economy.


In 2018, HFFA Research together with the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) have been contracted by the GIZ to contribute to the TRIGGER program. More specifically, we were asked to develop a market model for Tajikistan’s agricultural sector that could provide decision makers with more detailed information for targeted policy-making. The model would be used both by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, and the Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan.

As a result, HFFA Research has developed a dedicated partial equilibrium multi-market model for the Tajik agricultural sector. The model includes the country’s six main trade partners as well as Tajikistan’s twelve most important agricultural commodities.


In October 2018, the final model was presented to ministry staff and GIZ experts during a one-week workshop in Dushanbe. During the workshop, our team also trained the ministry staff and GIZ experts on how to use the new model, and how to best incorporate it into existing decision making processes. The final workshop has been an important step towards enabling local stakeholders to use the model for their own analyses, and to support better decision-making for the development of the rural economy in Tajikistan.


For more detailed information on this project, please contact us.