© vladislav333222/Adobe Stock Conducted in partnership with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), this project supports climate-resilient planning in Ethiopia by assessing the risks, costs, and benefits of agricultural adaptation measures under projected climate change.
Climate change presents mounting risks to agriculture across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Ethiopia particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on rain-fed farming. To ensure long-term food security and sustainable rural development, Ethiopia must identify viable, cost-effective adaptation strategies. The AGRICA Climate Project was developed to provide robust evidence to guide investment planning and improve access to international climate finance.
HFFA Research was commissioned by PIK to lead the cost-benefit component of the Ethiopian assessment. Building on climate impact projections, we evaluated specific adaptation interventions such as the introduction of irrigated fodder banks and improved crop varieties. The analysis compared scenarios with and without adaptation, quantifying both the costs of implementation and the avoided losses from climate impacts. This information equips policymakers and stakeholders with the economic rationale to prioritize feasible and high-impact strategies.
Adaptation actions like adopting improved crop varieties or establishing fodder banks can deliver net benefits by reducing future climate-induced losses.
Non-action scenarios showed significantly higher long-term costs due to increased yield variability and production risks.
Clear evidence on costs and returns of adaptation can enhance Ethiopia’s access to international climate finance and attract targeted public and private investments.
