HFFA Research GmbH analyses future investment needs and financing pathways for the transformation of German agriculture.
German agriculture is facing profound structural, environmental, and economic changes already now and in the years ahead. Shifting market conditions, climate change mitigation and adaptation, environmental challenges, rising production standards and changing consumer behavior increasingly shape production and investment decisions of farmers.
As Germany’s development bank for agriculture, the Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank plays a central role in supporting structural change and investment in the agricultural sector. To continue fulfilling this role, the bank must anticipate how agricultural production systems and farm investments are likely to evolve and how these developments translate into changing financing needs over time.
Against this background, the study commissioned by Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank aims to develop a baseline scenario and differentiated future thematic pathways for German agriculture for the coming decade, providing a structured foundation to identify future agricultural investment needs. The results are intended to support the strategic development of funding and financing instruments of Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank.
In collaboration with Prof. Oliver Mußhoff from the Department of Agricultural Economics at Humboldt-Universität of Berlin and Dr. Marius Michels from the Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development at University of Göttingen, HFFA Research GmbH conducts a qualitative and quantitative analysis of different transformation pathways of German agriculture.
The project combines three core elements:
The project is currently underway.
HFFA Research GmbH assesses how regulatory restrictions on plant protection products (PPPs) affect food self-sufficiency and agri-food trade balances in Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, and Romania.
Food sovereignty has moved to the centre of EU political debate. Recent crises from COVID-19 to Russia’s war against Ukraine exposed the fragility of global supply chains and highlighted the importance of domestic agricultural resilience. At the same time, the EU’s regulatory framework is significantly narrowing the range of available PPP active substances: from around 280 in 2011 to a projected 150 by 2030. No new synthetic-chemical active substance has been authorized in recent years, while emergency authorizations are rising and planning certainty for Candidates for Substitution continues to erode steadily shrinking the toolbox available to farmers.
HFFA Research conducted four country studies for Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, and Romania. A scenario was modelled in which, by 2030, all Candidates for Substitution and applicable emergency authorizations are not reapproved. The studies draw on regulatory databases and meta-analyses of yield loss data to estimate how the withdrawal of active substances would affect domestic production, self-sufficiency rates, and trade balances.
An additional economic analysis was carried out at farm level for selected agricultural and horticultural crops.
Across all four countries, the scenario results in declining self-sufficiency rates and a deteriorating agri-food net trade balance demonstrating that tightening PPP regulation without adequate alternatives poses real risks to domestic food availability and agricultural export capacity as well a farm income.
You can access the reports here:
HFFA Research GmbH contributes to EUROSION by analysing the costs and benefits of soil erosion management practices across Europe.
EUROSION is funded under Horizon Europe and directly supports the objectives of the EU Mission “A Soil Deal for Europe”, which aims to protect soil health, halt degradation, and support sustainable land use by 2030.
While policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) increasingly address soil protection, decision‑makers still face major knowledge gaps. Erosion rates are difficult to measure consistently across regions, the effectiveness of management practices varies widely depending on local conditions, and the economic implications for farmers are often insufficiently understood. As a result, practice uptake remains uneven, even where environmental benefits are clear.
With more than 25 partners from many different countries including universities, research institutions, and companies EUROSION responds to this challenge by building a pan‑European soil erosion monitoring and modelling framework that links biophysical information with land management practices and policies.
Within Work Package 5, HFFA Research GmbH is responsible for the socio‑economic assessment of soil erosion management practices, with a strong focus on cost‑benefit analysis.
Our work complements EUROSION’s monitoring and modelling activities by answering a central Horizon Europe question: Which practices work, and under which economic conditions are they adopted? We assess up to 25 erosion‑reducing practices by comparing their costs such as investments, labour, and maintenance with their economic benefits over time. Using indicators like net present value (NPV), benefit‑cost ratios, and internal rates of return, combined with farm‑level accounting, we evaluate both short‑term affordability and long‑term payoffs.
This analysis helps translate scientific evidence into information that is directly relevant for farmers, advisors, and policymakers designing incentives under instruments such as the CAP and future soil protection frameworks.
The project has just recently been kicked off, which is why no results were generated yet. However, by integrating cost‑benefit analysis into erosion research, our team helps ensure that soil protection measures promoted under EU policies are not only environmentally effective, but also economically realistic.
We will keep you updated.
You can find more information here.
HFFA Research GmbH examines how EMPHASIS creates value beyond science by strengthening skills, innovation, economic efficiency, and societal impact across Europe.
Plant phenotyping has become an essential part of modern agricultural research. It helps researchers and breeders better understand how plants respond to their environment and supports the development of crops that are more resilient, efficient, and better suited to a changing climate. Over the last two decades, Europe has invested heavily in phenotyping technologies and facilities.
One major step was the establishment of the pan-European Research Infrastructure EMPHASIS designed to make plant phenotyping more accessible and coordinated across Europe.
As EMPHASIS moves closer to becoming a fully operational European Research Infrastructure (ERIC), the question of its specific economic and societal values has become increasingly important.
To identify EMPHASIS’s contributions and future potential, our team carried out a socio‑economic impact assessment of EMPHASIS within the Horizon Europe project EMPHASIS‑GO.
We combined data‑driven analyses of publications, patents, start‑ups, and research funding with in‑depth interviews with stakeholders from research, industry, infrastructure management, and policy. This allowed us to move beyond abstract indicators and reflect the everyday experiences of people working with and around plant phenotyping infrastructures.
Our analysis looks at impacts across four main areas: human resources, economy and innovation, societal and environmental outcomes, and policy. Rather than focusing only on direct and measurable effects, we also consider longer‑term and less visible contributions, such as improved collaboration, better coordination at European level, and increased confidence among national communities when engaging with funders and ministries.
The assessment shows that EMPHASIS has already played an important role in bringing together a previously fragmented European phenotyping landscape. Through its predecessor projects and preparatory activities, it has helped build skills, connect infrastructures, improve data standards, and support cooperation across borders.
Plant phenotyping enabled through EMPHASIS contributes to more efficient research workflows, faster and more targeted breeding, and better understanding of how crops perform under stress conditions. These benefits matter not only for science, but also for long‑term goals such as climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, and food security. Although many economic and societal impacts are still developing and difficult to quantify, stakeholders clearly see phenotyping as a strategic investment.
At the same time, the study points to challenges. EMPHASIS is not yet equally visible across Europe, collaboration with industry remains underexplored, and its added value is not always easy to explain outside the scientific community. Addressing these issues will be crucial as EMPHASIS transitions to full ERIC status.
You can find the report here.
HFFA Research GmbH contributes to DETECTIVE, a Horizon Europe-funded project, by assessing the socio-economic implications of traceability and authenticity strategies for new genomic techniques (NGTs) in plant and animal products.
New genomic techniques (NGTs) offer promising solutions for more sustainable agriculture, aligning with the goals of the European Green Deal and the EU’s Farm to Fork Strategy. However, unlike traditional genetically modified organisms (GMOs), NGT-derived products often lack distinct genetic markers, making them difficult to detect using current methodologies. This poses significant challenges for regulatory compliance, consumer transparency, and market oversight.
To address these gaps, the European Union launched the DETECTIVE project, a four-year initiative focused on developing and validating robust detection, traceability, and authenticity methods for NGT products. The complexity of the task extends beyond technical detection, requiring a holistic view that includes legal, economic, and social dimensions. Understanding the broader socio-economic impacts of these emerging technologies is essential for informed governance and responsible innovation.
As part of Work Package 1, HFFA Research GmbH is providing the analysis of the socio-economic effects of different detection and authenticity strategies. The work of Work Package 1 includes evaluating the implications for various stakeholder groups ranging from breeders and farmers to agri-food operators, traders, and consumers both within the EU and globally.
We assess the economic feasibility and market impact of different technical and non-technical approaches, considering factors such as cost, trade implications, and scalability. Our insights will feed into the development of governance options that balance innovation, transparency, and societal benefit.
DETECTIVE is pioneering a multi-dimensional approach to NGT product detection, combining cutting-edge analytical techniques with socio-economic analysis and stakeholder engagement.
By addressing the socio-economic dimension of NGT detection strategies, HFFA Research GmbH plays a vital role in ensuring that regulatory solutions are not only scientifically sound, but also socially and economically viable.
More information can be found here.
HFFA Research GmbH supported GIZ’s Global Programme Soil Protection and Rehabilitation (ProSoil) in communicating key innovations in climate-smart soil management to international stakeholders and climate donors.
Soil degradation, intensified by climate change, threatens agricultural productivity, rural livelihoods, and global food security. With millions of hectares of soil lost annually, the need for sustainable, climate-adaptive practices has become urgent. GIZ’s ProSoil programme, operating since 2014 in multiple partner countries, promotes agroecological strategies for soil protection and the rehabilitation of degraded land. However, translating the programme’s extensive experience into globally accessible knowledge for climate and development audiences required targeted communication support.
HFFA Research GmbH was commissioned to synthesize ProSoil’s learnings into a strategic publication with the working title “Innovations for Climate-Smart Soil Protection and Rehabilitation.” This involved identifying key field-tested innovations, reviewing scientific and practical evidence, and distilling common lessons across geographies. The publication was tailored to inform international donors and development practitioners, aligning with ProSoil’s broader knowledge-sharing and policy advocacy goals.
The publication will highlight scalable, climate-effective practices for soil restoration, reinforce the relevance of agroecological approaches, and emphasize the importance of integrating SPR measures into global climate and development agendas. It serves as a communication tool to foster broader adoption and support for SPR interventions across contexts.
HFFA Research GmbH contributed to the first comprehensive analysis of how the Community Plant Variety Rights (CPVR) system supports sustainability, productivity, and economic resilience in the European Union, in collaboration with EUIPO and the CPVO.
As the EU pursues ambitious goals under the European Green Deal, agriculture is under pressure to cut emissions, reduce chemical inputs, and maintain high productivity—all amid growing concerns over food security and geopolitical instability. Crop innovation is essential to meet these demands, and the Community Plant Variety Rights (CPVR) system plays a pivotal role in incentivizing such innovation. However, until recently, its economic and environmental contributions had not been fully quantified.
Commissioned by the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO), HFFA Research GmbH led key components of a joint impact study with the Community Plant Variety Office (CPVO). The HFFA Research team developed the methodological framework, reviewed relevant literature, and conducted a detailed quantitative analysis of impacts on farmers and growers. Their findings informed the publication “Impact of the Community Plant Variety Rights System on the EU Economy and the Environment”, released in April 2022.
The study demonstrated the CPVR system’s significant benefits:
Without CPVR-protected varieties, EU production in 2020 would have been lower by 6.4% (arable crops), 4.7% (vegetables), 2.6% (fruit), and 15.1% (ornamentals).
Annual GHG emissions were reduced by an estimated 62 million tons—comparable to the national emissions of countries like Hungary or Ireland.
The system supports nearly 90,000 additional jobs across agriculture and horticulture.
Over 90% of CPVR holders are SMEs, underscoring its importance for innovation among smaller breeders.
The study was launched at a CPVO-hosted policy seminar during France’s EU Council Presidency, drawing wide participation from policymakers, academia, and the breeding sector. The recordings are available on the CPVO YouTube Channel.
Legal notification: Kindly note that the opinions expressed hereby are those of HFFA Research GmbH only and do not necessarily represent the EUIPO’s or CPVO’s official position.
As part of the German-Chinese Cooperation on Agriculture and Climate Change (DCZ), HFFA Research contributed to a bilateral expert exchange coordinated by IAK Agrar Consulting GmbH and funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through GFA Consulting Group GmbH.
Agriculture in both Germany and China is increasingly affected by climate change, requiring countries to simultaneously adapt their farming systems and mitigate emissions. However, distinct climatic conditions, resource constraints, and policy frameworks shape how each country approaches these challenges. This bilateral initiative seeks to deepen mutual understanding and foster knowledge exchange on effective strategies for climate-smart agriculture in both contexts.
As a member of the expert delegation, HFFA Research Analyst Sophia Lüttringhaus participated in field visits, technical discussions, and bilateral workshops held in both Germany and China. The study tours facilitated learning about on-the-ground innovations, best practices, and ongoing research in mitigation and adaptation. In Germany, the delegation explored topics such as emission reduction in livestock systems, climate-resilient plant breeding, and peatland restoration. In China, the focus was on circular agriculture, sustainable fertilizer use, and biogas-based nutrient recycling. The exchange culminated in a joint session at the 5th Sino-German Agricultural Week in Beijing, where the expert group shared key findings and policy recommendations.
German agriculture benefits from relatively high adaptive capacity but continues to refine mitigation strategies, particularly in manure management and soil conservation.
China is advancing circular agricultural practices, including integrated nutrient cycling and renewable energy from agricultural waste.
Both countries are investing in precision technologies and plant breeding to reduce climate vulnerability.
Bilateral exchanges reveal shared challenges and offer valuable opportunities for cross-country learning and collaboration in climate-smart agricultural innovation.