WWF Germany engaged HFFA Research GmbH to explore how climate-friendly consumption patterns could reduce reliance on imported oilseeds and protein crops, while mitigating their global environmental and social impacts.
Many everyday products contain oil or protein crops such as soya, oil palm, sunflower, rapeseed, and coconut—most of which are not cultivated in Germany in significant volumes. Their production abroad is often linked to deforestation, biodiversity loss, land conflicts, and labor rights concerns. As global demand continues to grow, so do these adverse impacts. WWF Germany sought to better understand how climate protection measures—especially in food consumption—might reduce Germany’s import dependency and lessen environmental pressures in producing countries.
HFFA Research GmbH conducted a scenario-based analysis to assess the effects of different climate action strategies on demand for imported oil and protein crops. The study began with the development of crop-specific factsheets summarizing key characteristics and global sourcing dynamics. It then modeled various scenarios—including reduced meat consumption following the Planetary Health Diet, reductions in food waste, and phasing out palm oil in biofuels—to estimate shifts in global land use linked to German consumption. The study also reviewed policy options, local crop substitution potential, and feasibility considerations for expanding domestic oilseed production.
The analysis demonstrated that dietary shifts and targeted policy measures could significantly reduce the global land footprint of German consumption. Reducing meat intake and eliminating palm oil use in fuels showed especially strong potential to lower environmental and social pressures abroad. The findings underline the power of consumption choices in shaping sustainable agricultural landscapes worldwide.
Prepared by HFFA Research in collaboration with Dr. Wilhelm Klümper and supported by BASF SE, this research study analyses the land use implications of major biodiversity-related policy measures in German arable farming.
Across the EU and Germany, numerous political initiatives aim to enhance biodiversity within agricultural landscapes. While diverse in design, many of these measures involve either taking land out of conventional production or altering farming practices, with potentially significant implications for arable land use. To inform policy discussions, a clear identification of those policies and their effects on land requirements is essential.
HFFA Research, together with external consultant Dr. Wilhelm Klümper, conducted an in-depth analysis to identify and quantify the land use implications of major biodiversity-related policy measures affecting German arable farming. The study focused on three major reform packages:
The 2023 revision of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
Germany’s Action Program for Insect Conservation (Aktionsprogramm Insektenschutz)
The Farm to Fork and EU Biodiversity Strategies under the European Green Deal
The research was based on Germany’s total arable land and involved a detailed review of nine individual policy measures. These were analyzed according to their legal definitions and strategic frameworks to estimate their respective land requirements.
The findings highlight substantial variation in how much land different policy measures might require, along with significant uncertainty regarding their effectiveness in achieving biodiversity, climate, and food security objectives. This underscores the complexity of evaluating biodiversity measures in isolation and points to a clear need for further interdisciplinary research.
The results were publicly presented in June 2022 during a BASF SE press conference, marking the formal launch of the publication.
HFFA Research GmbH was subcontracted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to conduct economic assessments of climate adaptation measures in the agricultural sectors of seven Sub-Saharan African countries in the AGRICA project on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and in cooperation with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
Context & Challenge
Sub-Saharan Africa’s agricultural sector faces growing climate risks, including yield variability and heightened vulnerability of rural livelihoods. In this context, the AGRICA project aimed to provide governments and stakeholders with actionable insights on projected climate impacts and to evaluate locally selected adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Effective planning requires robust data on both risks and the economic viability of response measures.
Our Approach
As a subcontracted partner to PIK, HFFA Research GmbH conducted cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) for climate adaptation options tailored to each country context. These assessments were integrated into broader climate risk analyses that included crop yield modeling under future climate scenarios and stakeholder-led identification of adaptation options. HFFA’s CBAs evaluated the cost-effectiveness of each measure, helping to prioritize investments and improve access to international climate finance.
Key Insights
The project produced seven country-specific studies—covering Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Niger, Uganda, and Zambia—each highlighting critical adaptation needs and financially viable strategies to enhance agricultural resilience. The findings support national planning processes and inform donors, investors, and development partners on high-impact areas for adaptation finance.
More information can be found on the AGRICA project website.
Commissioned by GIZ in collaboration with the Action Alliance for Sustainable Bananas (ABNB), this study evaluates the current and future impacts of climate change on key banana-producing regions in Latin America and outlines region-specific adaptation strategies.
Banana exports are vital to the livelihoods of rural populations in Latin America and remain a staple in European markets. However, current production practices often carry significant environmental costs, and climate change now threatens the long-term viability of banana cultivation in key regions. Addressing these risks is essential to safeguard both local incomes and the global banana supply chain.
HFFA Research is analyzing historical and projected climate impacts on banana yields in the regions of Antioquia and Magdalena (Colombia), El Oro (Ecuador), Mao and Azua (Dominican Republic), and Heredia (Costa Rica). The study integrates:
Historical yield and climate trend analysis over the past 30 years
Future climate projections and their estimated impact on yields and market prices through 2050 and 2070
Differentiated impact assessments by production type (e.g., smallholder vs. large-scale; organic vs. conventional)
Evaluation of ecosystem and biodiversity implications
In collaboration with ABNB and under the framework of BMZ-financed cooperation, the study also offers actionable guidance tailored to each region’s context, addressing both mitigation and adaptation measures for producers and policymakers.
In this project, stakeholders were equipped with data-driven insights and localized recommendations to strengthen the resilience of banana production systems. By identifying vulnerable areas and producer groups, the study contributes to informed policy decisions aimed at ensuring the sustainability of banana farming under changing climate conditions.
A new HFFA Research study evaluates the socio-economic and environmental contributions of plant breeding in the European Union since 2000.
Plant breeding is a cornerstone of sustainable agricultural development, yet its broad-ranging impacts are often underrecognized. In the context of the EU’s “Farm to Fork” and Biodiversity strategies, there is growing interest in quantifying the tangible value plant breeding delivers—not only to farmers and consumers, but also to environmental goals. This study addresses the need for comprehensive evidence on the role of plant breeding in enhancing productivity, sustainability, and rural livelihoods across Europe.
The analysis assessed plant breeding impacts at both the EU level and for five focus countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Using a combination of economic modeling, scenario analysis, and literature review, the study identified key outcome areas linked to advances in plant breeding technologies since the early 2000s. It also evaluated future potential contributions under current EU policy objectives, and provided policy recommendations to foster continued innovation in this field.
Yield improvements and increased arable production directly linked to modern plant breeding.
Enhanced trade conditions and food availability, contributing to higher social welfare.
Additional income and employment opportunities at the farm level.
Environmental gains including reduced land use, lower greenhouse gas emissions, improved biodiversity conservation, and water savings.
To sustain and amplify these benefits, the report calls for strengthened R&D investments, better public communication, and an adaptive regulatory framework that is proportionate and innovation-friendly.
Commissioned by IAK Agrar Consulting GmbH for the German-Mongolian Cooperation Project on Sustainable Agriculture (DMKNL), this study models the future impacts of climate change on key arable crops in Mongolia to support adaptation planning and food security.
Mongolia is experiencing climate change at an alarming pace, with temperatures rising three times faster than the global average and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns. These changes are amplifying the country’s historic vulnerability to droughts and threatening food production. With limited experience in arable farming and underdeveloped related industries, Mongolia faces complex challenges in ensuring stable agricultural yields for a growing and urbanizing population.
HFFA Research conducted yield modeling for spring wheat and potatoes across eight Mongolian Aimags, using two climate scenarios to estimate future productivity trends over the next 30 years. This analysis formed part of a short-term assignment under the DMKNL project’s climate component, funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through GFA Consulting Group. The study also evaluated adaptation needs and capacity gaps in Mongolia’s farming systems.
While average yields for wheat and potatoes are expected to remain positive, growth trends will likely weaken, and annual variability will increase significantly.
This heightened yield volatility could result in more frequent and severe shortages.
Key adaptation measures include scaling climate-smart agriculture (CSA), improving plant breeding and seed systems, disseminating usable climate data to farmers, and expanding sustainable irrigation.
A major constraint is the lack of locally adapted production knowledge and limited agricultural extension services. Effective knowledge transfer will be vital for improving resilience and safeguarding food security under future climate conditions.
Conducted in partnership with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), this project supports climate-resilient planning in Ethiopia by assessing the risks, costs, and benefits of agricultural adaptation measures under projected climate change.
Climate change presents mounting risks to agriculture across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Ethiopia particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on rain-fed farming. To ensure long-term food security and sustainable rural development, Ethiopia must identify viable, cost-effective adaptation strategies. The AGRICA Climate Project was developed to provide robust evidence to guide investment planning and improve access to international climate finance.
HFFA Research was commissioned by PIK to lead the cost-benefit component of the Ethiopian assessment. Building on climate impact projections, we evaluated specific adaptation interventions such as the introduction of irrigated fodder banks and improved crop varieties. The analysis compared scenarios with and without adaptation, quantifying both the costs of implementation and the avoided losses from climate impacts. This information equips policymakers and stakeholders with the economic rationale to prioritize feasible and high-impact strategies.
Adaptation actions like adopting improved crop varieties or establishing fodder banks can deliver net benefits by reducing future climate-induced losses.
Non-action scenarios showed significantly higher long-term costs due to increased yield variability and production risks.
Clear evidence on costs and returns of adaptation can enhance Ethiopia’s access to international climate finance and attract targeted public and private investments.
Developed with the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) for GIZ’s TRIGGER program, this project supports evidence-based agricultural policy-making in Tajikistan through the creation of a customized economic model.
Agriculture is central to Tajikistan’s economy, making its development a national priority. To inform policy that enhances rural economic resilience, the GIZ-led TRIGGER program sought tools to better understand agricultural market dynamics. Tajik ministries lacked a sector-specific modelling framework to guide decisions on trade, production, and rural development.
HFFA Research, in partnership with IAMO, developed a tailored partial equilibrium multi-market model of Tajikistan’s agricultural sector. The model incorporates twelve key agricultural commodities and trade relations with the country’s six main partners. It was designed for use by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture.
A dedicated training workshop in Dushanbe equipped ministry officials and GIZ staff with the skills to operate the model and integrate it into their policy-making processes, ensuring long-term local capacity.
A country-specific economic model was successfully developed and transferred.
The model provides granular insight into market dynamics, trade flows, and commodity trends.
Training facilitated direct use of the model by Tajik government officials, supporting evidence-based planning.
The initiative strengthens institutional capacity to pursue inclusive and sustainable rural development.
In collaboration with the International Climate Initiative (IKI), this project supports Egypt in evaluating climate adaptation measures as part of a broader MENA region effort to advance low emission strategies.
Context & Challenge
Despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, Egypt faces significant climate vulnerability—particularly in sectors such as water, agriculture, and urban infrastructure. To achieve its national climate targets, Egypt requires robust policy instruments and evidence-based planning that align with low-emission development goals.
The IKI-led initiative fosters regional dialogue and knowledge exchange across the MENA region, helping countries implement tailored climate strategies. Egypt was selected for targeted support in assessing its current and planned adaptation measures.
Our Approach
HFFA Research is contributing to the project by participating in a stocktaking mission in Cairo. In collaboration with Egyptian stakeholders, we are conducting a cost-benefit analysis of various adaptation options, evaluating their effectiveness, feasibility, and long-term benefits. This evidence will guide the prioritization of strategies aligned with national climate commitments.
Key Insights
Egypt’s climate vulnerability calls for well-targeted, economically sound adaptation measures.
Stakeholder engagement and locally tailored evaluation are central to the effectiveness of adaptation strategies.
The project enhances national capacity to integrate adaptation into broader low-emission development planning.
In collaboration with the International Potato Center (CIP) and under funding from GIZ, this project contributes to the SIMPATICA initiative by analysing how climate change affects potato agro-diversity and smallholder livelihoods in the Andean highlands.
The Andes host one of the world’s richest centers of potato diversity, with traditional landraces cultivated for over 7,000 years across a complex mosaic of microclimates and altitudinal zones. In this region, smallholder farmers maintain diverse potato varieties as an in-situ conservation strategy, enhancing both food security and resilience to climate variability. However, the socio-economic drivers and barriers influencing these traditional practices under changing climatic conditions remain poorly understood.
HFFA Research supported the SIMPATICA project by advising on survey design and conducting quantitative analysis to evaluate how farmers manage potato diversity. Our contribution included:
Supporting the development of a comprehensive household survey to serve as a longitudinal baseline.
Designing an econometric model to assess the socio-economic and cultural incentives and constraints affecting the maintenance of potato diversity.
Developed a robust data collection framework to enable long-term monitoring of agrobiodiversity trends.
Identified key factors influencing farmers’ decisions to continue cultivating traditional potato varieties, including market access, cultural values, and risk mitigation needs.
An open access baseline data base was published as one of the outputs of this project.