© Mike Mareen / Adobe Stock HFFA Research GmbH assesses how regulatory restrictions on plant protection products (PPPs) affect food self-sufficiency and agri-food trade balances in Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, and Romania.
Food sovereignty has moved to the centre of EU political debate. Recent crises from COVID-19 to Russia’s war against Ukraine exposed the fragility of global supply chains and highlighted the importance of domestic agricultural resilience. At the same time, the EU’s regulatory framework is significantly narrowing the range of available PPP active substances: from around 280 in 2011 to a projected 150 by 2030. No new synthetic-chemical active substance has been authorized in recent years, while emergency authorizations are rising and planning certainty for Candidates for Substitution continues to erode steadily shrinking the toolbox available to farmers.
HFFA Research conducted four country studies for Bulgaria, Czechia, Poland, and Romania. A scenario was modelled in which, by 2030, all Candidates for Substitution and applicable emergency authorizations are not reapproved. The studies draw on regulatory databases and meta-analyses of yield loss data to estimate how the withdrawal of active substances would affect domestic production, self-sufficiency rates, and trade balances.
Across all four countries, the scenario results in declining self-sufficiency rates and a deteriorating agri-food net trade balance demonstrating that tightening PPP regulation without adequate alternatives poses real risks to domestic food availability and agricultural export capacity.
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