© Rawpixel.com/Adobe Stock Commissioned by IAK Agrar Consulting GmbH for the German-Mongolian Cooperation Project on Sustainable Agriculture (DMKNL), this study models the future impacts of climate change on key arable crops in Mongolia to support adaptation planning and food security.
Mongolia is experiencing climate change at an alarming pace, with temperatures rising three times faster than the global average and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns. These changes are amplifying the country’s historic vulnerability to droughts and threatening food production. With limited experience in arable farming and underdeveloped related industries, Mongolia faces complex challenges in ensuring stable agricultural yields for a growing and urbanizing population.
HFFA Research conducted yield modeling for spring wheat and potatoes across eight Mongolian Aimags, using two climate scenarios to estimate future productivity trends over the next 30 years. This analysis formed part of a short-term assignment under the DMKNL project’s climate component, funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through GFA Consulting Group. The study also evaluated adaptation needs and capacity gaps in Mongolia’s farming systems.
While average yields for wheat and potatoes are expected to remain positive, growth trends will likely weaken, and annual variability will increase significantly.
This heightened yield volatility could result in more frequent and severe shortages.
Key adaptation measures include scaling climate-smart agriculture (CSA), improving plant breeding and seed systems, disseminating usable climate data to farmers, and expanding sustainable irrigation.
A major constraint is the lack of locally adapted production knowledge and limited agricultural extension services. Effective knowledge transfer will be vital for improving resilience and safeguarding food security under future climate conditions.
